Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 16 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

(7:23) 9-J.Ryan punts 54 yards to ARI 32, Center-48-N.Frese. 10-B.Golden to ARI 39 for 7 yards (41-D.McDonald).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.29 EP
71% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 86, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model