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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 44

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(9:14) 9-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.38 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP