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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 76

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 9-J.Ryan punts 55 yards to ARI 21, Center-48-N.Frese. 10-B.Golden to ARI 21 for no gain (27-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.63 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model