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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 9-R.Quigley punts 32 yards to SEA 7, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP