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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 50

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 9-R.Quigley punts 33 yards to SEA 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-28-J.Bethel.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +3.22 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.03 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP