4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 2-J.Lambo 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.79 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 32, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model