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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 3-M.Bryant 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model