Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 17 at the 59

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LAC 16, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL. PENALTY on ATL-27-R.Therezie, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 16.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.18 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model