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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 82

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(12:21) (Punt formation) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to ATL 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 14-E.Weems to ATL 43 for 9 yards (58-To.Williams; 53-J.Perry). PENALTY on ATL-16-J.Hardy, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ATL 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.63 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP