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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 26 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(7:26) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to JAX 11, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene to JAX 17 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model