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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 26

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 3-B.Nortman punts 44 yards to LV 16, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to LV 32 for 16 yards (47-J.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.51 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model