4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

What Actually Happened

(11:37) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. PENALTY on JAX-90-M.Jackson, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.77 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP