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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 80

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 23

What Actually Happened

(:33) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to LV 38, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to JAX 20 for 42 yards (47-J.Wilson). Penalty on LV-32-A.Hamilton, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LV-91-S.Calhoun, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model