Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 95

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(4:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to JAX 47, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to JAX 37 for 10 yards (47-J.Wilson; 25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -3.50 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.82 EP
65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 95, worth -5.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model