Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 91

Jacksonville Jaguars 9 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

(8:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to LV 36, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to LV 41 for 5 yards (59-A.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.87 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.83 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model