Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 9

(9:38) 7-M.King punts 60 yards to JAX 1, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene to JAX 7 for 6 yards (16-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.54 EP
61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 61, worth -3.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model