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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:34) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to LV 20, Center-46-C.Tinker. 30-J.Richard to LV 30 for 10 yards (16-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.06 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model