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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 19

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.73 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.79 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model