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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 5

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 6

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 2-J.Myers 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 5, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.26 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model