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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 7-M.King punts 57 yards to JAX 14, Center-59-J.Condo. 13-R.Greene to JAX 22 for 8 yards (20-N.Allen; 16-J.Holton).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model