Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(2:06) (Shotgun) 17-C.Keenum to LA 30 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LA 30. 17-C.Keenum pass short middle to 83-B.Quick to NYG 49 for 15 yards (33-A.Adams).

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

What Happened

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.05 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 64, worth -2.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model