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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 59

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(12:35) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to LA 13, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 11-T.Austin ran ob at LA 32 for 19 yards (52-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.58 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 18, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model