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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 13 at the 67

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(14:55) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 57 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 17-D.Harris to NYG 11 for 1 yard (38-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 67, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 25, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model