Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 95

New York Giants 10 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(9:59) (Punt formation) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to NYG 48, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds. PENALTY on LA-39-M.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.66 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.32 EP
64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 95, worth -5.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (112 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model