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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(11:20) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 50 yards to NYG 10, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-O.Beckham to NYG 10 for no gain (34-C.Reynolds; 15-B.Marquez). PENALTY on NYG-30-C.Sensabaugh, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.31 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model