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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 45

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(4:45) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to NYG 6, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-58-C.Littleton.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.40 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP