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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 12

New York Giants 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(8:19) (Field Goal formation) 5-R.Gould 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.70 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 12, worth -0.57 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model