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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 48

Los Angeles Rams 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 31 yards to NYG 17, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.52 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 48, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model