Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 61

Kansas City Chiefs 24 – New Orleans Saints 14

(12:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 39 yards to NO 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 87-T.Lewis pushed ob at NO 33 for 11 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.37 EP
54% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 61, worth -3.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model