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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 55

New Orleans Saints 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 24

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 6-T.Morstead punts 50 yards to KC 5, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.14 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 55, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 16, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP