Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

(12:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to KC 15, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.24 EP
61% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 61, worth -3.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model