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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 53

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short left to 82-K.Rudolph (26-J.Watkins).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.17 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 53, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 12% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 88% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model