Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Minnesota Vikings
4th & 1 at the 6
Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 18
What Actually Happened
(13:28) 44-M.Asiata left guard to PHI 6 for no gain (94-B.Allen).
The Three Options
GO
+3.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
- 37% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 6, worth -0.20 EP
KICK
+1.61 EP
- 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT
-0.42 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
