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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 30

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 3-B.Walsh 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.41 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model