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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:18) 8-D.Jones punts 60 yards to MIN 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 19 for 9 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 70, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 28, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model