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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(14:05) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.11 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model