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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 13

Green Bay Packers 26 – Chicago Bears 10

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-M.Crosby 31 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-A.Hicks), Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.35 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model