Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 74

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 20

(14:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.13 EP
65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model