Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 18 at the 59

Chicago Bears 10 – Green Bay Packers 13

(4:43) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 47 yards to GB 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.78 EP
76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model