4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 3 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:22) 2-M.Crosby 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.76 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.69 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 32, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model