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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 21

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-C.Barth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.47 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model