Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to GB 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-T.Davis to GB 32 for 6 yards (11-J.Bellamy). FUMBLES (11-J.Bellamy), recovered by GB-22-A.Ripkowski at GB 33. 22-A.Ripkowski to GB 33 for no gain (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
56% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 70, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model