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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 50

Chicago Bears 0 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to GB 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model