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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 10

Buffalo Bills 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 10, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model