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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:32) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.51 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model