Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 21

(3:38) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 54 yards to MIA 21, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to MIA 30 for 9 yards (50-R.Humber; 65-G.Sanborn).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 75, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model