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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 17 at the 44

Buffalo Bills 17 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(12:22) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to MIA 1, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.98 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.37 EP
KICK -1.18 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model