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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(12:53) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to MIA 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-J.Grant to MIA 31 for 8 yards (26-R.Blanton).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 28, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP