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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 40

Buffalo Bills 10 – Miami Dolphins 6

What Actually Happened

(:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 27 yards to MIA 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.22 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.26 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP