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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(3:54) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model